Thank Goodness it’s FALL! Well, almost. I’m excited, at least, for September and the many great things the month brings. The return of college football , NFL football, the start of baseball playoffs, and most importantly- the return of great TV! No more are we subject to watching questionable reality shows like ‘There Goes the Neighborhood’, ‘Wipeout’, and ‘The Great American Road Trip’. We finally get to see who survives between George and Izzy on Grey’s Anatomy (OK, we know the outcome thanks to the much publicized departure of one of the cast members, but we get to see HOW it happens), and watch Ted FINALLY meet the kids’ mother on How I Met Your Mother.

As a media professional (and a healthy consumer of the television medium), I would like to think I am certainly qualified enough to make some assumptions about ratings and how certain shows are going to perform. But if there is also anything I’ve learned in my 8 years planning and buying, it is that nothing is guaranteed or certain. Some shows I would have never thought would survive, have not only survived but thrived! And some shows I thought would do really well have been pulled after a year, or less! (I still miss you Lipstick Jungle and Cashmere Mafia).

So, without any more ado, here is the first installment of my critique/thoughts on the fall TV schedule (4 primary networks only). Starting with Monday & Tuesday…

* schedule as published today! all times listed as central/mountain- these are my thoughts only and should not be used against me Station reps, if you are reading this, I am sorry if I offend your network’s show(s)!

MONDAY
7p- I think FOX will win this hour, although it will be close between House, Dancing with the Stars on ABC (they have a weak cast this fall in my opinion though), and Heroes on NBC. Keep an eye on How I Met Your Mother on CBS, though, from 7p-7:30p. The show has grown in ratings every year its been on, and is finally getting the credit it deserves for being a REALLY great sitcom with a great cast (see Emmy & Golden Globe nominations). It’s my personal favorite show on TV right now so maybe I’m a little biased…
8p- CBS takes this hour fairly easily I think. DWTS second performance hour is on ABC, then Lie to Me on FOX (a good show that benefits from the House lead-in), and a new show on NBC- Trauma (think ER with less time spent in the emergency room and more time spent out at the accident scenes). But the strength of the two CBS sitcoms (2 1/2 Men & Big Bang Theory) are too much for the other shows.
9p- The first time I will mention Jay Leno. His primetime show is much-hyped (Monday-Friday from 9p-10p, so NBC basically eliminated 5 prime shows from last year), but we really don’t know what to expect ratings-wise. I think Monday is actually one night he has a chance to perform quite well. It just will greatly depend on guests- a lot of viewing will probably be tune-in, tune-out (viewers will tune in for a short period of time to either sample the show and see how they like it, or to see one guest, one feature on the show, etc.) So, back to Mondays… Jay is only up against the weakest of the CSI franchises on CBS, and Castle on ABC. I was actually surprised to see this show on the fall schedule, as I thought for sure it would be canceled. I think CSI: Miami will win the hour and Castle/Jay Leno will be neck and neck to finish second.

OVERALL: CBS wins the night. NBC struggles.
SHOW(S) TO KEEP AN EYE ON: How I Met Your Mother, Trauma, Jay Leno

TUESDAY
7p- Expect a tight battle with NCIS (CBS) & The Biggest Loser (NBC). NCIS started somewhat slow, but has actually gained ratings and share each season and even spurred a spin-off this fall (see 8p Tuesday). ABC is airing Shark Tank (a weird combination of various reality shows featuring people trying to convince millionaires to invest in their inventions) and then V once Shark Tank ends. I am not very familiar with V (stands for ‘The Visitors’), but I won’t be tuning in as I’m not into sci-fi. A second 2-hour reality show, So You Think You Can Dance, is on Fox. SYTYCD is a strong summer show, but I think it won’t perform nearly as well in the fall.
8p- Second hours of Biggest Loser and So You Think You Can Dance. ABC airs the Dancing with the Stars results and has a good chance to win this hour! CBS, though, launches NCIS: LA, a spin-off of the popular NCIS, and I expect this show to do as well, or better.
9p- All 3 shows are new! (Remember FOX airs local news this hour). Starting with CBS, The Good Wife really intrigues me. It doesn’t match at all with the previous 2 hours of programming, but I think its stars are going to appeal to NCIS viewers and after watching the pilot, I would say the plot (think fallen from grace politician’s wife has to go back to work as a lawyer, something she hasn’t done in 15+ years) is actually quite strong. The Forgotten on ABC looks REALLY confusing- another sci-fi show that I won’t be tuning in to. Finally, Jay again on NBC.

OVERALL: CBS/NBC tight race 7p-9p (CBS wins 9p easily); ABC stuggles 7p & 9p hours
SHOW(S) TO KEEP AN EYE ON: NCIS: LA, The Good Wife

AB